Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
