It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
