A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
